It has been ten days since the world has had time to digest the now-infamous 2005 leaked video of Donald Trump disparaging and degrading women. In the video, in case you have been inhabiting another planet during this very turbulent period, Trump infamously gloats that, among other things, he is able to “grab [women] by the pussy,” due to his fame.
Predictably, and justifiably, this has provoked perhaps the biggest backlash against Trump since he launched his most idiosyncratic campaign sixteen months ago. So no, it will not have ended up being the Muslim ban, the call to build a wall (that Mexico will pay for), nor the various other unsavory things that Trump has said that will have led to his ultimate downfall. Rather, it will have been a three-minute-long video in which he eloquently recounts his attempts to “fuck,” a married woman (while being very recently married himself), in addition to exulting his extreme prowess in seducing the opposite sex.
I should perhaps add the disclaimer that there are still three weeks left before election day. This being Trump, whose various scandals seem to occur in rapid succession, there is plenty of time yet for some more exhilarating leaks- leaks that might prove to be even worse for Trump than this particular specimen. But irrespective of this possibility, it seems that Mr. Trump’s days can finally be deemed, with ample certainty, to be numbered.
In any case, it is now time to see just how severe the effects of this leaked video have been on Mr. Trump’s polling numbers. The poll below, taken on Friday the 7th of October (the day the video was released), shows Clinton already holding a slim lead nationwide:
By Monday the 10th of October, it is clear that Clinton has massively benefitted from the leaked video (or rather, that Trump has been massively wounded by it). I purposely chose a poll published on Monday the 10th, rather than, say, Tuesday the 11th, due to the fact that that the second Presidential Debate was held the evening of the 10th. Hence, by using polling numbers published on Monday the 10th, we are able to ignore any further effects that the debate might have had:
Granted, in these two charts, the only poll that appears in both is the Rasmussen poll, which saw Hillary Clinton increase her lead by six points within three days. Despite the other polls not being the same in both charts, any honest observer would say with ample certitude that Trump’s fortunes had taken a massive tumble in the immediate aftermath of the release of the misogynistic video.
In the chart below, one can see the general trajectory of the polling numbers for both main candidates. As late as October 6th, Trump was polling at 44.6%. By October 10th, he was down to 40.4%:
Which brings us to my last point. Mr. Trump has never been forecast to win the female vote. This is not entirely unrelated to the fact that Hillary Clinton is the first female nominee for President by any major American political party- certainly a source of increased enthusiasm for many Americans to vote for her.
Yet it seems that Mr. Trump’s polling numbers among women are particularly miserable, compared to past Republican candidates. Indeed, comparatively, during the 2012 Presidential Election, fought between Barack Obama and Mitt Romney, the numbers were as follows:
Hence from these last two charts, we can deduce the following:
1) Ms. Clinton has increased her level of support among women by 7% compared to Obama in 2012.
2) Mr. Trump has seen the share of men willing to support him fall by 2% compared to Romney in 2012.
In sum, one can only conclude that these have been severely bruising days for Trump, and any hope he and his supporters have had for a last-minute rally are all but terminated. He will have left this election both a “loser” (an insult he dishes out quite often to those who stand in his way) and a persona non grata among many demographic blocks of voters, not least women.
So "Crooked Hillary" it will be. You heard it here first... sort of.